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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Friday: Cloudy with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
Highs: 64-68 degree range
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.Lows: in the lower to middle 50s
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Highs: 64-68 degree range
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Cloudy with scattered showers - a thunderstorm possible.
Highs: In the 55-60 degree rangeWind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Saturday night: Cloudy with a chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Lows: in the lower 50s
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-60% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25"-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday - Mostly cloudy sky conditions - showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy downpours possible.
Highs: in the middle 60s
Wind: South winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60%-80% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-0.75" - locally heavier totals likely.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
HEADLINES: A complicated forecast over the coming days. It isn't that we aren't sure whether or not it is or isn't going to rain - we know the answer to that question! It is going to rain. The question will be the placement of the frontal boundary and ripples of energy that move up along the frontal boundary.
Right now it appears that the heaviest rainfall amounts will be placed over southern Indiana into Kentucky and Tennessee. Lesser rainfall totals are likely across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.
Showers will be ongoing on Thursday night and continue into Sunday night. There will be several distinct chances of rain. One of those being on Friday itself - then scattered on Saturday - then another widespread chance on Sunday into Sunday evening.
There will be a chance for thunderstorms - severe weather is not expected. Lightning will be the main concern - for any outdoor plans. The area in yellow is where general thunderstorms are expected. Again - that means below severe levels.
Rainfall totals should be in the 0.50"-1.00" over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri (from start to finish) and in the 1"-2" range over parts of southern Indiana down into Kentucky and Tennessee.
Rainfall forecast
There remains some questions on how numerous the showers will be on Saturday. I know there are several parades in the region. I believe that showers will be more scattered late on Saturday morning into early afternoon - then perhaps more numerous during the evening hours into Sunday. There will be a better chance for precipitation over our southeast counties vs northwest (that means a better chance over parts of Indiana and Kentucky/Tennessee).
Check radars if you have outdoor plans and check the latest forecast numbers.
Radars http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Our region needs this rainfall. Drought conditions prevail over all of our counties. We could use several inches of rain.
The good news is that we are entering an active pattern of the coming weeks. I promised you that the second and third weeks of December would become more active. That appears to be happening - starting with this system.
It is too early to make a call as to whether any of the systems could produce snow or ice. Some of the model data is showing enough cold air for some frozen precipitation in the coming weeks. The problems with long range data is that it doesn't always verify. So - I will keep monitoring and updating as each event draws closer.
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-60% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25"-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday - Mostly cloudy sky conditions - showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy downpours possible.
Highs: in the middle 60s
Wind: South winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60%-80% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-0.75" - locally heavier totals likely.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
HEADLINES: A complicated forecast over the coming days. It isn't that we aren't sure whether or not it is or isn't going to rain - we know the answer to that question! It is going to rain. The question will be the placement of the frontal boundary and ripples of energy that move up along the frontal boundary.
Right now it appears that the heaviest rainfall amounts will be placed over southern Indiana into Kentucky and Tennessee. Lesser rainfall totals are likely across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.
Showers will be ongoing on Thursday night and continue into Sunday night. There will be several distinct chances of rain. One of those being on Friday itself - then scattered on Saturday - then another widespread chance on Sunday into Sunday evening.
There will be a chance for thunderstorms - severe weather is not expected. Lightning will be the main concern - for any outdoor plans. The area in yellow is where general thunderstorms are expected. Again - that means below severe levels.
Rainfall totals should be in the 0.50"-1.00" over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri (from start to finish) and in the 1"-2" range over parts of southern Indiana down into Kentucky and Tennessee.
Rainfall forecast
There remains some questions on how numerous the showers will be on Saturday. I know there are several parades in the region. I believe that showers will be more scattered late on Saturday morning into early afternoon - then perhaps more numerous during the evening hours into Sunday. There will be a better chance for precipitation over our southeast counties vs northwest (that means a better chance over parts of Indiana and Kentucky/Tennessee).
Check radars if you have outdoor plans and check the latest forecast numbers.
Radars http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Our region needs this rainfall. Drought conditions prevail over all of our counties. We could use several inches of rain.
The good news is that we are entering an active pattern of the coming weeks. I promised you that the second and third weeks of December would become more active. That appears to be happening - starting with this system.
It is too early to make a call as to whether any of the systems could produce snow or ice. Some of the model data is showing enough cold air for some frozen precipitation in the coming weeks. The problems with long range data is that it doesn't always verify. So - I will keep monitoring and updating as each event draws closer.
Rain over the coming days could mess up outdoor plans. Severe weather risk appears very low - there could be some lightning and thunder.
Check radars if you have outdoor plans. Rain is likely over the coming days.
Wild card in this forecast will be just how widespread the rain will be over the coming days and the exact placement of the frontal boundaries. I know there are a lot of ourdoor plans on Saturday (parades and other). Check radars if you have concerns.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits Yes
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? Yes
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? Yes
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
What are my current thoughts on the chances for significant snow or ice over the next 7 days
No significant snow or ice in the current forecast!
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
What are my current thoughts on the chances for significant snow or ice over the next 7 days
No significant snow or ice in the current forecast!
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
