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Aledo Times Record - Aledo, IL
Beau Dodson's weather analysis for the southern Illinois and western Kentucky area.
January 10th Update: Busy weather pattern unfolding
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About this blog
By Beau Dodson
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Jan. 9, 2013 12:01 a.m.

January 10-11, 2013



For more frequent updates visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.







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A busy weather pattern is unfolding for our local area.  Several periods of rain and thunderstorms will occur between now and Monday night.  A winter storm is possible this weekend in and close to our region.

Monitor the very latest forecasts over the coming days.  I am expecting the forecast to change several times as the event unfolds.  

I can't rule out ice in parts of our region on Saturday night into Monday.  Pay a little more attention to any watches/warnings that may need to be issued.








This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western  Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee


HEADLINES:  First off - I need to remind everyone that the NWS Radar out of Paducah, KY will be down for maintenance for at least 1-2 weeks.   Use neighboring or regional radars to view precipitation.

 I promised you busy weather and busy weather is what you are about to receive.  A series of storm systems will move through our region over the coming days.  These systems will move along a stalled front that will find itself draped over our region this weekend.

The first wave of precipitation will occur on Thursday into Thursday night.  Another wave of precipitation will occur on Saturday afternoon into Sunday night.

Widespread 1-2" of rain will occur over the coming days with pockets of 2-4" likely.  We need the rain. 

There will be a small window of opportunity for a few severe thunderstorms on Thursday evening and Thursday night.  Wind fields will increase sharply during this time frame.  Instability is in question - as it typically is during winter months.

Right now the main time frame for concern would likely by 4 pm Thursday afternoon through 2 or 3 am Friday morning.

Monitor local media and the NWS for any watches and/or warnings that may need to be issued.

It will be warm on Thursday and Friday/Saturday.  Temperatures will be in the 60s over most of our area.  Colder air will start to move into our northwest counties on Saturday afternoon and night - this cold air will slowly move south and east on Sunday.  



There will be a sharp temperature contrast over our region this weekend.  I would not be surprised to see a 30-40 degree temperature difference across parts of southeast Missouri into western Kentucky.

A wintry mix is likely to develop in our region on Saturday night into Monday morning.  All forms of precipitation will be possible.  This will include snow, sleet, and freezing rain.  An ice storm can not be ruled out over some of our counties.  This will depend on how far south and east the cold air moves.  Monitor the latest forecasts.  Winter storm watches of some sort may need to be issued this weekend.

I will keep the Facebook page updated. - here http://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather     









Thunderstorms are possible Thursday into Friday morning.  I can't rule out a few severe thunderstorms in and close to the region on Thursday evening into Thursday night.  Wind damage would be the main concern.  An isolated tornado is also possible.  The overall risk appears low at any given location.






Locally heavy rain is possible Thursday into Thursday night and again on Saturday into Sunday.  A few thunderstorms could produce severe weather on Thursday evening.


A wintry mix is possible over parts of our region Saturday night into Monday.  Monitor latest forecast updates.





The wild card in the forecast will be the placement of the freezing line on Saturday night into Monday.  A wintry mix is possible over at least parts of our region as colder air moves in behind a cold front this weekend.  Monitor updates.

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here


We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 


Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms.   Click here to join
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.
 

Thursday: A few reports of severe weather will be possible on Thursday evening/night
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Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits  Yes


Friday  A small risk for severe thunderstorms during the wee early morning hours (midnight through 3 am).  No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  Early morning hours


Saturday:  
Severe weather is not anticipated.  A wintry mix may develop over our northwest counties on Saturday night - monitor the latest forecast updates.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  Yes - afternoon and night.  Thunderstorms possible.



Thursday-Saturday:  No snow or ice - some thunderstorms are likely by Thursday -  monitor for updates.
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  



To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here





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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?


Thursday - Monitor updates

Thursday night - Monitor updates

Friday - No

Saturday - Unlikely

Sunday - Unlikely



To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here 



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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here

All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national        map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.

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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.













A winter storm is possible Saturday night into Monday in or near our region.  Colder air will arrive from the northwest on Saturday - this colder air will slowly push south and east through our region.  As the colder air arrives there will be precipitation moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico.  This precipitation will spread across our region on Saturday afternoon and evening.  The rain may change to snow, sleet, and freezing rain on Saturday night and Sunday.



The exact placement of the snow/ice/rain line is in question.  
Monitor updated forecasts.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here



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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.





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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !

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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.



We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.



Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---

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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  Here is a video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU

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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall in our region.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.



Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in! 



 CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image






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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour                period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  



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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here 

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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 

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To view recent records that have been broken - click here 

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1.  Colder air for our region next week.  



Latest drought information:

DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE 



Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here



If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week!  For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.











Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson

McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook

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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site

http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site

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