2022 Charles Schwab Challenge prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions
There's no post-major rest for many of the game's top players this week as they compete at the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge. Last week's PGA Champion Justin Thomas will be in the field at Colonial Country Club, seeking to go back-to-back and keep the momentum going after his miraculous comeback on Sunday.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Thomas unsurprisingly ranks No. 1 in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, one spot ahead of Jon Rahm and two in front of World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who is also in the Colonial field. Viktor Hovland is the 5th-ranked player in Golfweek's rankings, his 2nd appearance at this event.
Colonial Country Club is hosting this tournament for the 77th time and like Southern Hills last week, it's a par 70 and was designed by Perry Maxwell, so there will be some familiar elements - though the fairways are considerably narrower and the greens are once again on the smaller side.
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2022 Charles Schwab Challenge - Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:07 p.m. ET.
Jordan Spieth (+350)
Since 2013, Spieth has 6 top-10 finishes in the event and won it once. Colonial seems to be one of his favorite courses based on the way he's played there, finishing solo 2nd last year. He has a win and 3 total top-5 finishes this year, and I think he adds another this week.
Collin Morikawa (+380)
With narrow fairways and small greens, Morikawa's accuracy off the tee and approaching the greens will give him an advantage. The one concern is his chipping around the greens, which ranks among the worst on tour (172nd in strokes gained: around the green). He tied for 14th last year and was runner-up in 2020.
Other T5 contenders ( in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Tony Finau (+750)
- Abraham Ancer (+750)
2022 Charles Schwab Challenge - Top-10 picks
Kevin Na (+480)
Since 2012, Na has won this tournament once (2019) and come in the top 10 twice. He's very accurate off the tee (66% of fairways hit) and ranks 29th in SG: approach the green, so he has a similar game to Morikawa, albeit at a lower level.
Talor Gooch (+400)
In 19 starts, Gooch has incredibly come in the top 25 a dozen times, including 4 top-10s. When he's made the cut, he's played well on the weekend too, finishing outside the top-30 only once this season after making the cut. Gooch tied for 14th last year and has made the cut 3 of his 4 trips here.
Will Zalatoris (+240)
It would be easy to think Zalatoris might be in for a down week after losing the PGA Championship in a playoff, but he's a resilient young player and will remain focused in Texas this week. He putted better than expected at Southern Hills and obviously hit the ball extremely well, carrying momentum into this week.
More Charles Schwab Challenge coverage:
2022 Charles Schwab Challenge - Top-20 picks
Doug Ghim (+380)
Ghim finished this event 5-under last year, which was good for a tie for 14th. But what's most encouraging is that he's finished in the top 35 in 3 of his last 4 events. His iron play is good enough to contend this week, but his putter has been ice cold. That'll need to change for him to come in the top 20.
Max Homa (+140)
All Homa does is finish in the top 20. He's done so 9 times this season, including 2 wins. His record at Colonial isn't great, missing the cut twice in 3 tries, but the way he played in the PGA Championship was impressive and he rides the momentum of 3 straight top-21s into this week.
Other T20 contenders ( in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Davis Riley (+190)
2022 Charles Schwab Challenge - Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Justin Rose (-110) vs. Tom Hoge (-110)
Rose played well at the PGA Championship and thanks to a final-round 68 finished tied for 13th. Hoge has been playing well as of late too, but Rose's putting has been excellent this year and he hits a lot of fairways.
Davis Riley (-110) vs. Gary Woodland (-110)
Riley is a great driver of the ball, ranking 46th in distance (306.3) and 54th in accuracy (63.6%) off the tee. He's never had as strong of a stretch as he's currently enjoying either, finishing no worse than T-13 in his last 4 starts. Woodland has been too inconsistent for my liking.
2022 Charles Schwab Challenge - Top English
Justin Rose (+260)
There arent many Englishmen in the field this week (6), which has Rose with the 2nd-best odds in this group, lower than only Tommy Fleetwood (+190). Both players finished strong at the PGA Championship so they'll come into this week with some confidence, but I just like Rose's odds and value a bit better.
2022 Charles Schwab Challenge - First-round leader
Patton Kizzire (+7000)
Kizzire ranks 6th on tour in first-round scoring average (68.5) this season. That, paired with his 3rd-place finish here last year - helped by a first-round 67 - makes him a nice long-shot pick to lead the field on Thursday.
Scottie Scheffler (+2000)
Scheffler will be motivated to bounce back from a disappointing missed cut at Southern Hills, largely thanks to his double-bogey on the final hole of Friday's 2nd round. He can get on the birdie train rather quickly and stay aboard for a while. On the season, he has 8 sub-70 first-round scores.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group D winner: Davis Riley (+330)
Gary Woodland (+280), Jason Kokrak (+300), Chris Kirk (+380) and Sebastian Munoz (+380) are the other players in this group, which is a very competitive collection of players - including last year's champion Kokrak. But Riley is trending better than any of those other 4, which is why I'm taking him to win this group.
Winning margin: 1 shot (+250)
There are too many good players in this field for one guy to pull away with a big win. I'm also tempted to bet that there will be a playoff at +300, which is how things were settled in 2020, but I like a 1-shot victory better.
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