Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions
The Philadelphia Phillies (20-23) face the Atlanta Braves (20-23) Wednesday for the 3rd game of their 4-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Phillies vs. Bravesodds with MLB picks and predictions.
Philly won the series opener 7-3 Monday and Atlanta responded with a 6-5 Tuesday to even the series.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
Phillies at Braves projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Charlie Morton
Suarez is 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 39 1/3 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 4-1, at home vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday with 3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 5.77 FIP with a .248/.344/.517 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 23.3 K% and 93.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 30 plate appearances (PA).
Morton is 3-3 with a 4.95 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 across 40 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: Win, 5-3, Friday at the Miami Marlins with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 5 K.
- 2021 vs. the Phillies: 3-2 with a 2.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 through 24 2/3 IP over 5 starts.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.51 FIP with a .267/.318/.423 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 20.1 K% and 87.1 mph EV in 154 PA.
Phillies at Braves odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at noon ET.
- Money line (ML) : Phillies +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Braves -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Phillies +1.5 (-145) | Braves -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U) : 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions
Braves 8, Phillies 4
RISK 1 unit on the BRAVES (-175) instead of betting 1 unit because we are getting the worst of the number. Atlanta's ML opened at -135 but sharp action has steamed it up to the current number, per Pregame.com.
There's a "Pros vs. Joe's" scenario in the betting market since more money is on the Braves but more bets have been placed on the Phillies. It's typically wise to follow the money when it's counter to the public since sharps wager a lot more money than your average Joe.
Atlanta also has edges in starting and relief pitching and hit better vs. left-handed pitching than Philly does against righties.
Morton's pitching peripherals are impressive vs. active Phillies hitters and Morton has a 2.19 ERA in his last 5 starts against Philly. Plus Atlanta's bullpen is 8th in xFIP (3.61) and Philly's bullpen is 26th (4.24).
The Braves are 8-6 overall vs. left-handed starters and the Phillies are 12-17 against right-handed pitching. Atlanta's lineup ranks higher in wRC+ (105), wOBA (.322) and hard-hit rate (34.8%) against lefties than the Philly lineup's 100 wRC+, .313 wOBA and 28.6% hard-hit rate vs. righties.
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PASS with a heavy lean to Braves -1.5 (+120) because they have a 3-edge over the Phillies in starting and relief pitching and hitting. However, there's some value in the Over, Atlanta is 6-15 RL as a home favorite and Philly is 10-3 RL as a road underdog.
SPRINKLE on the OVER 8.5 (-130) because Atlanta's ML is my favorite wager in this game.
However, Atlanta is 14-5-2 O/U as a home favorite and 8-0 O/U in Morton's last 8 starts as a favorite and Philly is 9-4 O/U as a road underdog.
Truist Park also has the 3rd-highest park factor in the MLB, making it very hitter-friendly, the Over has cashed in 11 of the last 15 Phillies-Braves meetings in Atlanta and the total has been steamed up by sharp action.
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